EastBridge Insight Week #02 | EastBridge Think Lab

Monday, August 10

Iran: precondition for talks. Donald Trump states that one of the conditions for resuming talks with Tehran would be compensation for conflicts caused, as he puts it, by Iran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejects the eighth tranche of U.S. sanctions imposed this year, targeting Iran’s shadow banking system as part of the Economic Fury campaign.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from Kpler, the number of confirmed transits falls from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and six on Sunday, with roughly half of the voyages using the northern route approved by Iran. During the same period, 116 transits are recorded through Bab al-Mandab. Tehran has made reopening the waterway conditional on the lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran’s vicinity, and a permanent end to the war.

South Korea and the United States announce the Ulchi Freedom Shield. The Republic of Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Combined Forces Command announce at a joint briefing in Seoul that the exercise will take place from 17 to 27 August. Approximately 18,000 South Korean troops will participate. Scenarios will include counter-drone operations, GPS disruption, and cyber operations, while the field-training component will consist of Warrior Shield exercises. The exercise is also being used to assess readiness for the transfer of wartime operational control to Seoul (FOC).

Tuesday, August 11

Iran: restructuring of the military leadership. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei announces six appointments at the highest levels of command. Ali Abdollahi is appointed chief of staff of the armed forces, Ahmad Vahidi commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Ali Azmaei commander of the IRGC Navy. Khamenei has not appeared in public since taking office following the killing of his father in February.

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: This marks another significant reorganisation of Iran’s chain of command since 28 February, following strikes that deprived Tehran of most of the top tier of its military leadership. The choice of appointees is significant. Ahmad Vahidi comes from the founding generation of the Corps, previously commanded the Quds Force and headed both the defence and interior ministries. His appointment represents a turn towards institutional continuity rather than the promotion of commanders who rose to prominence during the recent months of war. From an operational perspective, the most consequential appointment is that of the IRGC Navy commander, since this formation is responsible for maintaining the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fast-boat operations, and mine warfare capabilities. Appointing a new IRGC Navy commander in the midst of the crisis may indicate that Tehran is preparing the formation to sustain its ability to control and disrupt shipping in the strait over an extended period. A separate issue is the manner in which Mojtaba Khamenei is exercising power. The way the appointments were carried out may suggest that the consolidation of power is currently focused on filling key positions rather than publicly demonstrating legitimacy.

Strike on a vessel attempting to break the blockade. CENTCOM says that a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter has fired missiles at the Panamanian-flagged container ship M/V Vela Nova after it repeatedly ignored warnings and attempted to cross the Gulf of Oman towards Iran. The vessel’s steering gear is damaged. According to the command’s tally, since the blockade was reinstated in July, 55 merchant vessels have been turned back, three disabled, and two boarded by inspection teams.

Yemen: exchange of strikes. The Houthis carry out missile attacks on Mokha (Al-Mukha) and Marib. Government forces report strikes on Houthi positions in Al-Jawf province, Saada province, and the At-Tibas area of Marib.

Pakistan in Tehran. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrives in Tehran amid advanced talks on the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Wednesday, August 12

North Korea: second missile test within a week. At around 6:00 a.m., a ballistic missile is launched from the Wonsan area. It travels more than 700 kilometres before landing outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Seoul and Tokyo confirm the launch. It is North Korea’s eleventh suspected ballistic missile test of 2026, following a launch from the same area on 6 August.

Hormuz: conflicting statements. Trump says that the United States has full control of the strait and that Iran can be destroyed. Mohsen Rezaei, the new secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, responds that the waterway will remain closed until Washington ends the war and blockade and meets Tehran’s other conditions.

Lebanon: demolitions in the south. The Lebanese Armed Forces report that Israeli forces have blown up a four-storey school building in Zawtar al-Sharqiyah. The incident forms part of a series of cases involving the destruction of infrastructure in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire remaining in force.

Thursday, August 13

UN on Yemen. Special Envoy Hans Grundberg tells the Security Council that Yemen has faced its greatest risk of returning to large-scale war since the April 2022 truce. He points to Houthi attacks in Marib, Hadramawt, Al-Mukha, and other areas, which have caused both military and civilian casualties.

Second strike on the Jizan refinery. The Houthis claim to have attacked and hit Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery with two drones. It is the second attack on the facility in less than a week, following the strike on 9 August. The facility processes approximately 400,000 barrels of oil per day.

Attack on ADNOC vessels. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company says that two of its vessels have been attacked in the evening while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. No injuries are reported, and no group claims responsibility.

Pentagon report on civilian casualties in Yemen. A document submitted to Congress this week confirms that U.S. strikes in Yemen killed 153 civilians in 2025. The three confirmed incidents were the 17 April 2025 attack on the Ras Isa fuel terminal (80 killed and 171 wounded), the 28 April strike in Saada (68 killed), and the 6 April attack on a private home in Sana’a (five killed and 25 wounded).

Economic isolation package for Iran announced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says in an interview with Newsmax that what he describes as unprecedented economic measures against Iran will be announced the following week. He identifies them as the second component of the campaign, alongside the continuing blockade of Iranian ports.

Friday, August 14

Aircraft carrier rotation. The USS George Washington carrier strike group, after making a port call in Vietnam on 5 August, heads towards the Middle East to replace USS Abraham Lincoln. The latter has remained in the region for more than 250 days, including 200 days without a port call.

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: More than 250 days in the region and 200 days without a port call significantly exceed the seven-month cycle envisaged under the U.S. Navy’s readiness model. Extending the deployment increases the likelihood of higher maintenance and overhaul costs and may reduce the ship’s availability in subsequent cycles. More important, however, is the direction of the rotation. USS George Washington is permanently based in Yokosuka and remains the only forward-deployed aircraft carrier in the western Pacific. Sending it to the Middle East means that the Indo-Pacific is losing this component of its naval presence at a time when China is, for the first time, exercising with a foreign navy east of Taiwan, while North Korea is conducting a series of ballistic missile tests. This provides a practical illustration of the gap between strategic documents, which prioritise China, and the actual movement of forces, which is being dictated by the war with Iran. The rotation demonstrates the cost of maintaining a high concentration of carrier forces in the Middle East: the availability of this component in the Indo-Pacific becomes more limited during this period.

Declaration on the Strait of Hormuz. During remarks in Garden City, New York, Trump says that after defeating Iran, he will declare the Strait of Hormuz territory of the United States, citing the blockade currently in force. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi responds that Iran is not afraid of threats or demonstrations of force. The strait remains under the control and jurisdiction of the coastal states to the extent provided for under international law, while navigation through the strait is governed by the law of the sea.

Yemen: another strike on Mokha (Al-Mukha). A Houthi attack on the port of Al-Mukha kills six people, including two members of the security services, according to a representative of government forces. On the same day, the group also announces that it has struck a Saudi oil facility.

West Bank. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz calls for responsibility for law enforcement in the West Bank to be transferred from the military to the police. The backdrop is a week-long blockade of Palestinian homes in Qusra, near Nablus, by settlers.

Gaza: Kushner mission announced. It is announced that Jared Kushner and Nickolay Mladenov, the Peace Council’s senior representative for Gaza, will travel to Israel and Egypt the following week. The visit follows Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a 15-point plan providing for the gradual disarmament of Hamas, the transfer of weapons to a Palestinian governing committee, and the parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Iraq: preparations regarding pro-Iranian militias. According to Iraqi political sources, Prime Minister Ali al-Zajdi has ordered an assessment of security and logistical conditions in Jurf al-Sakhr, a stronghold of Kataib Hezbollah. The deadline for the militias’ voluntary disarmament is set for 30 September.

Iraq: oil export levels. The Oil Ministry reports that exports have averaged two million barrels per day since the beginning of August, the highest level since the outbreak of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

North Korea on allied exercises. A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman says the upcoming manoeuvres differ from exercises conducted over the past five years and are intended to develop the ability to wage war under new conditions, accusing the United States of pushing the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Taiwan: Han Kuang concludes and budget adopted. The annual Han Kuang exercises conclude. Late in the evening, the opposition-controlled parliament adopts a state budget worth approximately $93 billion after a record 266-day impasse. Funding for the drone programme is maintained, with the Kuomintang withdrawing its previously announced 70 per cent reduction. Spending on military equipment and infrastructure is cut by 2.5 per cent.

Saturday, August 15

Lebanon. Israeli air strikes kill 11 people and wound 19 in southern Lebanon. Seven people, including three children, are killed in Ansar; four are killed in Deir al-Zahrani, where 17 others are wounded. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office says the strikes are a response to a Hezbollah attack in which three Israeli soldiers were seriously wounded and that the target has been one of the organisation’s command posts. Hezbollah calls on the government to break off direct talks with Israel and pledges a response.

Yemen: shelling of residential districts in Marib. The Yemeni government says Houthi strikes have hit residential neighbourhoods and camps for displaced people. Marib is home to more than two million of Yemen’s approximately five million internally displaced people.

Mokha (Al-Mukha) port suspends operations. The port director announces the suspension of operations following a series of Houthi strikes. According to his figures, more than 25 missiles have hit the facility in recent days, killing seven people and causing an estimated $16 million in damage.

Iran rejects declaration on the strait. Tehran describes the proposal to recognise Hormuz as U.S. territory as delusional and calls on Washington to acknowledge its defeat. The Iranian authority responsible for the strait says the waterway will remain closed until Iran’s conditions are met.

Sunday, August 16

Iranian-Omani talks on the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran is continuing talks with Muscat on shipping routes through the strait. He stipulates that reopening the waterway will depend on the United States complying with the memorandum signed in June.

Gaza: Hamas delegation in Cairo. Hamas representatives arrive in Cairo for talks on the Peace Council plan rejected by Benjamin Netanyahu on 9 August.

West Bank. The UN delivers assistance to Palestinian families who have been cut off for a week by settlers in Qusra. According to reports, Israeli forces are redeploying some personnel to the West Bank to counter settler violence.

Ceasefire expires. The U.S.-Iranian ceasefire expires on Monday, 17 August, with no visible progress on the Strait of Hormuz issue.

Korea: order to scale back Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises. Donald Trump announces on Truth Social that he has instructed Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to substantially scale back the joint exercises with the Republic of Korea scheduled to begin the following day. He says it is too late to cancel the manoeuvres altogether. He cites the costs borne by the United States, a signal he regards as inappropriate and hostile towards North Korea, and his own good relations with Kim Jong Un as reasons for the decision. In the same post, he says that the South Korean president has refused to join U.S. efforts to denuclearise Iran. No details are provided on how the scope of the exercises will be reduced. U.S. Forces Korea and the Republic of Korea Embassy in Washington do not comment on the matter.

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: Such short notice leaves little time for an orderly reorganisation of the exercises. In practice, the elements most likely to be cut are those that can be removed the quickest, rather than those of least military importance. One of the components potentially most at risk is the FOC assessment in the process of transferring wartime operational control to Seoul, as this is the most extensive component evaluated during Ulchi Freedom Shield. Postponing it would delay a process that has a sovereignty dimension for Seoul, meaning that a gesture towards Pyongyang would come at the expense of an ally’s priority. The precedent of 2018–2019 showed that suspending major exercises most rapidly degrades the integration of combined staff and disrupts certification schedules. Separately, the decision should be viewed in the context of South Korea’s refusal to participate in actions concerning Iran. It may be interpreted as a signal that Washington is prepared to link allied cooperation in one theatre with expectations concerning allies’ actions in another, which other allies may in turn read as an indication of the political costs of refusing to participate in U.S. operations. The scale of the reduction remains unspecified, while Ulchi Freedom Shield is based primarily on computer simulation, meaning that cuts to the field-training component would have a predominantly political rather than military effect.

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