EastBridge Insight Week #09 | EastBridge Think Lab

Monday, September 28

Iran and the United States, dispute over further talks following the rejection of Tehran’s proposal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi states that Iran is prepared for a resumption of war and will “confront any new aggression, even if it leads to an apocalyptic war [author’s translation].” His remarks come in response to a question about a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that Donald Trump might consider resuming airstrikes after the November midterm elections. Araghchi does not claim that such a decision has already been made. Iran’s delegation to the United Nations indicates that it does not plan another meeting with U.S. representatives this week, contradicting Trump’s statements that further talks are expected. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz describes Iran’s seven-day proposal as a cynical attempt to secure sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) denies claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that it has seized a second unmanned American underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining that all operational systems of this type remain under U.S. control. According to NBC News, an Iranian cruise missile struck a vessel carrying U.S. Marines in the strait on September 14, injuring eight of them. Earlier, conservative Iranian lawmakers had criticized Araghchi for his contacts with Washington’s envoys and questioned his authority to conduct such talks.

Iraq, flights between Najaf and Iran resume under pressure from armed groups. Iraqi Airways resumes flights between Najaf and Iranian airports after their suspension following Washington’s introduction of sanctions targeting entities cooperating with Iranian airlines. The Iraqi News Agency attributes the resumption to efforts by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. Iraq’s ambassador to Tehran explains that the government did not order the suspension of flights; rather, foreign ground-handling companies independently refused to provide services for fear of sanctions. On the same day, hundreds of supporters of pro-Iranian groups demonstrate outside Najaf airport, while some factions threaten to bring down the government. The United States issues a limited, one-month authorization covering only flights to and from Najaf intended for Iranian pilgrims.

Sudan, North Kordofan authorities accuse the RSF of drone attacks on El-Obeid. The state government reports that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have targeted civilian facilities in the state capital with drones, including a sports complex and the private Shikan University. In their initial official statement, state authorities report no casualties or material damage. However, a subsequent report by Radio Tamazuj, citing local sources, states that two people have been killed and several injured, leaving the casualty figures uncertain. The authorities call on the international community and human rights organizations to condemn the attacks and document the violations. The RSF does not respond to the allegations.

Tuesday, September 29

Saudi Arabia, drone attack on a power station supplying the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. At 5:11 a.m. local time, a drone strikes the Taibah power distribution station in Medina, which supplies electricity to the Prophet’s Mosque. One transformer is taken out of service, but the electricity grid continues operating without disruption. The Saudi-led coalition does not disclose the incident until October 1, attributing it to the Houthis based on an analysis of the drone debris. Coalition spokesperson General Turki al-Maliki accuses the group of attempting to target both holy mosques. The Houthis deny the accusation, describing it as a lie intended to conceal the lack of evidence supporting an earlier allegation of an attack on Mecca.

Iran, Araghchi receives Washington’s response to the seven-day proposal in Doha. On his return journey from New York, the foreign minister meets with Qatari mediators in the evening, who convey the U.S. position on Iran’s confidence-building plan. According to a source speaking to Reuters, the disagreement between the parties concerns not the elements of the plan but the sequence and timing of their implementation. Tehran proposes that, once its conditions have been met, the first steps be taken within four to five days, the Strait of Hormuz reopen on the sixth day, and direct talks begin on the seventh day. The conditions include lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen funds, exempting oil exports from sanctions, and halting military operations on all fronts.

Wednesday, September 30

End of the coalition mission and withdrawal of U.S. troops. U.S. forces depart their last bases in Erbil, bringing an end to the international coalition’s mission against the so-called Islamic State and over two decades of U.S. military presence in Iraq. Four days of celebrations known as “Sovereignty Days” begin in Baghdad, running from 30 September to 3 October. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi describes 1 October as the beginning of a new phase of sovereignty. The prime minister’s national security adviser, Qasim al-Araji, emphasises that the end of the mission does not mean the end of the partnership and that Iraq intends to develop bilateral security relations with the United States, NATO, and other coalition members, including training, advisory assistance, and intelligence sharing. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell states that responsibility for the remaining challenges, including ISIS and pro-Iranian militias, now rests with the Iraqi government. Pro-Iranian groups portray the withdrawal as their own victory. 30 September also serves as the deadline for disarming militias, but that deadline is withdrawn. The new plan envisages completing the process no later than 30 June, 2027.

Iran, government reviews the U.S. response. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani reports that Araghchi has briefed the cabinet on his visit to New York and has presented the American proposal he received, without disclosing its contents. President Masoud Pezeshkian states that any agreement must benefit both sides. On the same day, the United States imposes sanctions on ten individuals and entities from Iran, Hong Kong, and Pakistan, accusing them of procuring weapons and components for Iran’s Ministry of Defense. Trump announces that a decision regarding Iran will be made very soon.

United Arab Emirates and Israel, attack in the cockpit of a Flydubai aircraft bound for Tel Aviv. During flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv, carrying 174 passengers, the first officer attacks the captain, Indian national Smit Machchhar, in the cockpit and attempts to seize control of the aircraft. Despite being injured, the captain manages to open the cockpit door, allowing passengers and crew members to subdue the attacker. Two pilots travelling as passengers take control of the aircraft and make an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. In the first hours following the incident, the perpetrator’s motive has not yet been officially established. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of suspicions that the incident has been an attempt to deliberately crash the aircraft. A subsequent UAE investigation classifies the incident as an attempted terrorist attack.

Syria, attack on a bus in Homs province and gas pipeline explosion near Damascus. Unknown assailants open fire on a bus transporting employees of a private company, killing seven people and injuring four. One of the victims is an employee of a Syrian energy company. Several hours earlier, an explosion and fire occurred on a gas pipeline near the Tishreen power plant in Eastern Ghouta, forcing the shutdown of three power plants due to a lack of gas: Tishreen, Deir Ali, and Al-Nasiriyah. This marks the second such incident in two days, following a 28 September explosion on the pipeline between Al-Shula and Deir ez-Zor. Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir acknowledges that the cause of the explosion remains undetermined.

Saudi Arabia, Riyadh rules out concessions on security. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman states that the kingdom will not compromise on its security, accusing the Houthis of choosing chaos. Pakistan declares that it will make all necessary resources available to Saudi Arabia in the event of a Houthi threat. The previous day, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed regional security, including the situation in Yemen, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan.

Thursday, October 1

United States, third aircraft carrier and approximately 9,000 troops heading to the Middle East. The Pentagon deploys the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which has departed San Diego, and an amphibious group led by the USS Makin Island to the region, comprising more than 7,000 sailors and approximately 2,000 Marines in total. The aircraft carriers USS George H. W. Bush and USS George Washington are already operating in the region, where U.S. military personnel now number more than 50,000. According to the Associated Press, all three aircraft carriers could be in the region by late October, while The Wall Street Journal reports that the full deployment will be completed by the end of November. Trump again warns of the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran. Reuters reports that senior Iranian commanders are reviewing plans to expand their list of potential targets beyond U.S.-linked facilities in the event that the American military campaign resumes.

Yemen, reports of airstrikes on Sanaa and fighting near Taiz. Several hours after the Houthis were accused of attacking Medina, the group reports Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa and the provinces of Saada, Taiz, and Amran. Riyadh does not confirm these reports. The Yemeni army states that 30 Houthi fighters have been killed and 50 wounded in clashes south of Taiz.

Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani soldier shoots a resident of Shaki village. At approximately 2:00 p.m., an armed man enters a house in the village of Shaki in Syunik province and shoots a 39-year-old woman in the leg before fleeing. He is detained at around 3:30 p.m. elsewhere in the same village and identified as Azerbaijani soldier Nasimi Musayev. According to Armenia’s National Security Service, Baku reported on 29 September that the serviceman had left his military unit under unclear circumstances and might have crossed the border illegally. The victim’s condition is stable. Prosecutors open an investigation, which is expanded the following day to include additional charges, and a court orders two months of pretrial detention.

Lebanon, Israeli military operations in the south of the country. Lebanese state media reports a powerful detonation carried out by Israeli forces in the village of Majdal Zoun. The Israeli military states that it has destroyed a Hezbollah tunnel. On 2 October, Israeli artillery shelled several areas, including the vicinity of Marjayoun and its local refinery. In the following days, Israeli shelling and detonations affect numerous towns and villages across southern Lebanon.

Central Asia, Rogun financing and Kyrgyzstan’s first satellite. On 1 October, the lower house of Tajikistan’s parliament ratifies an agreement concerning a $300 million World Bank grant for the second phase of financing the Rogun hydroelectric power plant. The grant itself was approved by the World Bank on 30 June, 2026. Also on 1 October, a Falcon 9 rocket launches Kyrgyzstan’s first national satellite into orbit. The same launch also carries NIS PocketQube, a picosatellite developed by students at Nazarbayev Intellectual School in Astana.

Friday, October 2

United States, Camp David meeting on Iran and Yemen. According to Axios, senior administration officials spend several hours discussing the next steps in the war with Iran and the Saudi-Yemeni conflict. The meeting, which was not publicly announced, is chaired by Vice President J.D. Vance. Participants include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Sudan, army announces capture of Al-Mazrub in North Kordofan. The armed forces report taking full control of the town after heavy fighting in which the RSF allegedly suffered personnel and equipment losses. A military source describes Al-Mazrub as the RSF’s largest stronghold in the state. Special Forces spokesperson Mohammed Deidan emphasises that the town connects North and West Kordofan and that its capture is intended to cut the enemy’s supply lines.

Yemen and Saudi Arabia, further strikes and Tehran’s proposal. Government forces carry out twenty strikes against Houthi positions in Taiz province, while the coalition reports intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Khamis Mushait. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reveals that Iran has suggested opening a political dialogue with the Houthis.

Saturday, October 3

Saudi Arabia, Houthis claim attack on Aramco facility in Riyadh. The group states that it has struck an Aramco facility in the Saudi capital in retaliation for airstrikes on Sanaa and other Yemeni provinces. A witness quoted by Reuters reports seeing fire and smoke near the facility.

United Arab Emirates, Flydubai incident classified as an attempted terrorist attack. Attorney General Hamad Saif al-Shamsi announces that the first officer attempted to commit an act of terrorism by attacking the captain with an emergency crash axe and trying to seize control of the aircraft. Media and security sources identify the suspect as 29-year-old Omani national Hamam al-Hammami. According to ABC News, extremist materials had been found in his possession in 2024, when he was working as a trainee first officer for Oman Air. He was subsequently grounded for one year, although he was allowed to continue carrying out administrative duties. Israeli and Emirati security services are investigating his possible connections and motive. Flydubai has already suspended flights to Israel on 1 October, following the 30 September incident.

United States and Iran, two members of the Iranian delegation to the UN expelled. According to Axios, two members of Iran’s delegation to the UN General Assembly are forced to leave the United States after Secretary of State Marco Rubio demands the delegation’s departure.

Sunday, October 4

Yemen, announcement of a major campaign against the Houthis. Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi announces the launch of a large-scale military operation against the Houthis. Coalition spokesperson General Turki al-Maliki states that Saudi Arabia has the right to defend itself against the group’s attacks and pledges full operational support for the Yemeni army until the group is eliminated. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry announces that the committee established under the Mecca defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will meet in Riyadh on 5 October.

Iran, Ghalibaf makes reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditional on seven demands. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf states that the strait will not reopen until seven Iranian conditions set out in the June Islamabad Memorandum concluded with the United States have been met. He adds that the time for prolonging the process and imposing unilateral demands has come to an end.

United States and United Kingdom, withdrawal of B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford. According to The New York Times, the United States withdrew all 12 B-1B bombers stationed at the British airbase in a single day. The Pentagon and U.S. European Command confirm their return to their home bases. The withdrawal follows reports of a credible threat to the base. American and British officials suspect a possible Iranian connection to the threat [comment: as of 4 October, however, there is insufficient evidence to present Iranian responsibility as an established fact]. Several men previously detained on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act, including a dual British-Iranian national, are released on bail pending further investigation.

Sources:

Just Security: Early Edition, September 28 — https://www.justsecurity.org/159075/early-edition-september-28-2026/

Just Security: Early Edition, October 2 — https://www.justsecurity.org/159499/early-edition-october-2-2026/

Just Security: Early Edition, October 5 — https://www.justsecurity.org/159662/early-edition-october-5-2026/

GlobalSecurity.org: Iran War Timeline — https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-update.htm

Al Jazeera: September 28 Live Coverage — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/28/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-its-fully-prepared-for-war-amid-hormuz-tensions

IranWire / Reuters: US Response to the Seven-Day Plan — https://iranwire.com/en/news/158298-reuters-tehran-receives-us-response-to-seven-day-plan-via-qatari-mediators/

Kurdistan24: Dispute over the Sequence of Steps — https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/942944/iran-receives-us-response-to-seven-day-hormuz-proposal-gap-is-over-sequencing-not-substance

Boston Globe / AP: Iranian Cabinet Meeting — https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/30/nation/iran-receives-us-response-end-war/

US News / AP: Third Aircraft Carrier and 9,000 Troops — https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2026-10-01/us-is-moving-thousands-of-troops-aboard-ships-to-the-mideast-as-trump-weighs-new-strikes-on-iran

Political Wire / WSJ: US Military Reinforcements — https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/01/u-s-sending-third-aircraft-carrier-to-middle-east/

Al Jazeera: Attack on Power Station in Medina — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/1/saudi-led-coalition-says-power-station-attacked-in-medina-blames-houthis