EastBridge Insight Week #10 | EastBridge Think Lab

Monday, October 5

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan begin implementing the Makkah Alliance. At an extraordinary meeting of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee of the Makkah Alliance for Defence in Riyadh, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan agree to move immediately to implement their collective defence commitments, including the rapid deployment of agreed forces and military capabilities to the Kingdom. The parties condemn attempted attacks on Mecca and Medina, as well as attacks on Saudi cities and economic facilities, without identifying the perpetrator. Retired Lieutenant General Nauman Mahmood of Pakistan is appointed the alliance’s first secretary-general for a three-year term. The statement does not specify troop numbers or types of equipment, and deployments are to proceed in accordance with each party’s domestic legislation.

IRGC forces tanker to turn back while entering the strait. UKMTO reports that a tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz approximately 11 nautical miles north of Khasab was contacted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ordered to turn back under threat of being fired upon. The captain complied. The previous day, Ali Fadavi, head of the advisory group to the IRGC commander, warned on state television that vessels using the U.S.-supervised route along Oman’s coast could be attacked. On the same day, UKMTO reports that a tanker leaving the strait has been hit, while Seatrade reports that the LNG carrier Maran Gas Mystras has also been struck.

Khurais: conflicting accounts of an interruption in oil flows. A source in the Saudi energy sector tells AFP that, following the 4 October attack on a pumping station in Khurais, east of Riyadh, flows through the East-West pipeline to the Yanbu terminal have again been suspended. On the same day, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, and a source speaking to Reuters reports that oil is flowing through the pipeline without disruption. The accounts therefore do not establish whether an interruption has occurred or how long it may have lasted. Oil prices rise by as much as 1.2% following the initial reports before paring some of those gains. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree describes attacks on Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais as retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa and five Yemeni governorates. The approximately 1,200-km pipeline has become a key channel for Saudi oil exports since the start of Iran’s blockade of Hormuz.

Government forces announce the recapture of Mocha. Forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognised government, supported by aircraft from the Saudi-led coalition, launch Operation “Dawn of Yemen”. Military spokesman Colonel Majid al-Nuzayli announces that government forces have taken control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area and Dhubab airfield and have cut the Dhubab–Mocha road. The coalition says it has struck 324 targets. The defence ministry claims to have captured Mocha, which the Houthis seized in September, while four government sources say troops have reached the city’s outskirts by evening. These reports cannot be independently verified. According to Maritime Executive (MarEx), both sides continue to claim control of sections of coastline near Dhubab and Bab el-Mandeb.

Tajikistan and Iran: visa-free travel extended to all entry routes. From 5 October, Tajik and Iranian citizens holding ordinary passports can enter, transit through, and stay in the other country without a visa for up to 30 days in any 90-day period, including via land border crossings and flights from third countries. Since early 2025, the exemption has covered only direct flights. The two countries do not share a border, so overland travel requires crossing Afghanistan or both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The visa exemption between Iran and Tajikistan does not waive the entry requirements of transit countries.

Suspected plague case in Irkutsk Oblast. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urges the public to rely exclusively on statements by Rospotrebnadzor regarding the death of an employee of the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, who, according to sources cited by several media outlets, may have had pneumonic plague. Rospotrebnadzor identifies the cause of death as pneumonia of undetermined origin. Independent media report unconfirmed quarantines at several hospitals in Irkutsk and the isolation or monitoring of nearly 200 contacts. Kyrgyzstan (from 3 October) and Tajikistan tighten sanitary checks at their borders, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan announce emergency measures and heightened preparedness. On Wednesday, the Kremlin spokesman dismisses the vast majority of media reports on the matter as false; the WHO Director-General calls on Moscow to clarify reports of a second employee with pneumonia of unknown origin; and the United States formally requests additional information.

B-1 bombers withdrawn from RAF Fairford. President Donald Trump confirms that an Iran-linked threat has prompted the United States to withdraw B-1 bombers from Britain’s RAF Fairford base. Five men were arrested near the base on 27 September, followed four days later by the arrest of a dual British-Iranian national suspected of preparing acts of terrorism. According to Reuters, London has authorised the use of Fairford only for defensive strikes against Iranian launchers targeting ships in Hormuz. A RUSI analyst assesses that relocating the aircraft would temporarily limit the United States’ ability to rapidly increase the number of sorties against Iran.

Tuesday, October 6

On Peace: 12 seafarers injured. The tanker On Peace (Panamanian flag; owned by Dubai-based ONEX DMCC) was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting Hormuz off the coast of Oman; 12 of its 19 crew members suffered burns. India’s Ministry of External Affairs says that 17 Indian nationals were on board, including 11 of those injured. According to Oman’s Ministry of Defence, the attack occurred approximately nine nautical miles northeast of Lima in Musandam Governorate. The projectile caused a fire on deck, and the Omani air force transported 10 injured crew members to a hospital in Khasab. On 28 September the vessel appeared on a list published on of ships deemed by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to be in violation of its regulations (IMO 9893204). The listing alone does not establish a connection to the attack.

CENTCOM: results of the blockade of Iranian ports. CENTCOM says that since the resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports on 14 July, U.S. forces have turned back 130 merchant vessels, disabled three ships that refused to comply with orders, and destroyed 13 vessels over a 12-week period. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper states that, over two months, U.S. forces have ensured the safe passage of more than one billion barrels of oil through Hormuz. According to MarEx, 12 tankers and gas carriers were hit in the seven days ending 6 October. MarEx attributes the attacks to Iran, while UKMTO does not identify a perpetrator.

East-West pipeline and exports via Yanbu. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman says flows through the East-West pipeline have reached 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) on Tuesday morning, a day after reports of a shutdown. According to Kpler, approximately 45 million barrels of oil were loaded onto ships at two Saudi Red Sea terminals between 17 September and 4 October, averaging around 2.5 million bpd. That loading figure is not directly comparable to daily pipeline throughput, which had reached around 7 million bpd before the September attack. Standard Chartered estimates Saudi oil exports at around 6.9 million bpd in September, compared with 2.45 million bpd in August. Crude oil and condensate exports from Gulf states excluding Iran approach their pre-war level (around 16.5 million bpd), but approximately 60% of those barrels pass through Hormuz, compared with 83% before the war.

Two ships owned by Turkish operators struck off Bulgaria. In the early hours of 6 October, drones struck two vessels owned by Turkish shipping companies in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. Alfa Watan (Togolese flag, built in 1976) reportedly sinks within minutes, while Able (Palauan flag) catches fire after being hit in the stern. The crew of Alfa Watan, reported by the media to number 10–12 and believed to be Syrian nationals, are listed as missing, with their fate unconfirmed. Bulgaria ends search operations conducted approximately 70 miles off its coast. The Russian embassy in Sofia states that the ships are not on the Russian defence ministry’s target list. Bulgaria’s president convenes the Consultative Council for National Security, calls on Russia and Ukraine to stop attacks on commercial shipping, and announces cooperation with Romania and Turkey.

Attack on the Aframax Rio tanker near Sochi. Russia’s Ministry of Transport reports an attack on the Liberian-flagged tanker Aframax Rio off Sochi. According to TASS, the vessel was attacked by an unmanned surface craft, all 23 crew members—Indian nationals—were evacuated, and oil was burning on the water. The tanker has been on Ukraine’s sanctions list since 12 February 2026 as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, but is not subject to EU sanctions.

Former BND president arrested. Germany’s federal prosecutors arrest August Hanning, who headed the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) from 1998 to 2005, and his former chief of staff, Manfred D. According to prosecutors, Manfred D. allegedly supplied Hanning with approximately 2,000 intelligence documents in exchange for payment between 2010 and June 2022. Prosecutors do not identify the foreign intelligence service for which Hanning allegedly prepared analyses. According to Times of Central Asia, the documents included material on Iran’s nuclear programme and Russia’s armed forces, while Der Spiegel reports contacts between Hanning and an Azerbaijani intelligence representative. Baku rejects the allegations.

Oman prepares to join the EDB; Kazakhstan shows interest in its ports. During Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s state visit to Astana, Oman’s finance minister and Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) chairman Nikolai Podguzov signs an agreement governing the bank’s operations in Oman. Oman is expected to become the EDB’s eighth shareholder and the first from outside the former Soviet Union. Kazakhstan and Oman sign an investment protection agreement, while Samruk-Kazyna and the Oman Investment Authority agree to establish a joint investment initiative. The parties discuss using Omani ports to provide Kazakhstan with access to the Indian Ocean.

Wednesday, October 7

Houthi attacks on airports in Abha and Riyadh (6–7 October). Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation reports that attacks on the international airports in Abha and Riyadh (King Khalid International Airport) have killed three people and injured 36. According to Reuters, two women from Morocco and Algeria were killed in Abha, and a Sudanese man in Riyadh. The Saudi-led coalition intercepts a ballistic missile north of the capital and says it has struck more than 80 Houthi military sites in the governorates of Saada, Al Hudaydah, Al Jawf, and Marib. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree announces a multi-drone attack on Riyadh airport, while Yemen’s transport ministry says the Houthis attacked Aden airport with missiles and drones on the same day. The previous day, Saree urged international airlines to avoid Saudi airspace.

Makkah defence agreement to be submitted to parliament. AKP spokesman Ömer Çelik announces that the government will submit the Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement to parliament within days, initiating the ratification process. Only ratification could provide a legal basis for the possible deployment of Turkish troops to Saudi Arabia. According to Çelik, the foreign ministry has essentially completed its work on the document. Two days earlier, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan agreed in Riyadh to prepare forces and equipment for rapid deployment to the Kingdom.

Attack in the western Gulf. UKMTO (warning 158-26) reports that, on the evening of 7 October, a tanker approximately 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, was struck by several projectiles, injuring crew members. Neither the vessel’s name nor the number of casualties is disclosed. MarEx describes the incident as the first attack on a tanker in the western half of the Gulf in weeks, several hundred miles from Hormuz. According to the publication, U.S. surface warships do not operate west of the strait, leaving tankers serving terminals in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar relatively poorly protected.

UNIFIL position comes under fire near Kfar Shouba. UNIFIL reports several bursts of small-arms fire struck one of its positions near Kfar Shouba in the eastern sector along the Blue Line. The mission does not identify the perpetrator, deems the fire deliberate, and opens an investigation. No one is injured. Under UN Security Council Resolution 2790 (2025), UNIFIL is to end operational activities on 31 December 2026 and gradually withdraw its personnel over the following year. The mission comprises approximately 7,500 troops from around 50 countries. A June framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel, reached with U.S. involvement, envisages Hezbollah’s disarmament, a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese army, beginning in designated pilot zones.

Thursday, October 8

Opposition figures sentenced ahead of presidential election. The Pervomaisky District Court in Bishkek, in proceedings closed to the public, sentences Kadyr Atambayev, son of a former president, to four years in prison and Social Democrats leader Temirlan Sultanbekov to seven years for preparing a forcible seizure of power following the early parliamentary election in 2025. The defendants plead not guilty, and the defence challenges the legality of a recording used as evidence. The presidential election is scheduled for 27 January 2027, and President Sadyr Japarov intends to seek a second term.

Avaza: Central Asia–Azerbaijan summit. The presidents of the five Central Asian states and Azerbaijan adopt a joint statement at the eighth Consultative Meeting, the first since Azerbaijan was admitted as a full participant in November 2025. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposes a joint action plan to increase intra-regional trade from approximately USD 13 billion in 2025 to at least USD 20 billion, as well as an expert-level discussion on linking the Middle Corridor to the TRIPP transport initiative. According to AnewZ, Ilham Aliyev announces that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are working on a corridor for exporting green electricity from Central Asia to Europe. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan establish a Supreme Strategic Partnership Council on the sidelines of the summit.

New US and UK sanctions targeting shadow fleets. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctions another 17 tankers linked to Iranian exports under Operation “Economic Outcast”, while the State Department designates 10 entities, six individuals, and five vessels, including petrochemical traders from Turkey, the UAE, and Iran. According to TankerTrackers, 173 tankers linked to Iran remain outside U.S. sanctions. The United Kingdom adds 12 tankers and two Russian oil companies to its sanctions list. According to the British authorities, sanctioned entities account for more than 90% of Russia’s oil production capacity. This does not mean that a corresponding proportion of oil production has ceased.

Lebanon: another Israeli soldier killed in the south. The Israeli military reports that an officer has been killed and three soldiers slightly wounded in southern Lebanon. According to AFP, he is the 17th Israeli soldier killed since the June ceasefire with Hezbollah. During a visit to Beirut, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas advocates extending the mandate of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon and announces an EU training mission for the Lebanese army.

Friday, October 9

CIS summit attended by Iran’s president. The CIS Council of Heads of State meet in Avaza, near Turkmenbashi, on the 35th anniversary of the Commonwealth’s establishment. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attends for the first time, alongside the presidents of eight member states and Armenia’s prime minister. According to AnewZ, Uzbekistan will chair the CIS in 2027, with Azerbaijan serving as co-chair. Azerbaijan is expected to assume the chairmanship for the first time in 2028.

Riyadh rules out Houthi ceasefire until lost territory is regained. A regional source tells AFP that Saudi Arabia will not agree to a ceasefire with the Houthis until the Yemeni government it supports has recovered all territory lost in recent weeks. According to the IOM, more than 200,000 people have been displaced since the start of the current phase of fighting in Yemen.

Saturday, October 10

Deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh airport. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh is hit in what is described as the most serious attack on the facility in more than a decade. According to Saudi authorities, missiles attributed to the Houthis penetrated air defences and struck Terminals 3 and 4. Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation initially reports 12 deaths and 309 injuries; subsequent Reuters reports put the death toll at 13. The victims include nationals of Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Bangladesh. The attack paralyses air traffic in the capital and prompts an immediate U.S. response: President Donald Trump says Washington is considering joining retaliatory airstrikes against Yemen. The Houthis also claim attacks on Aramco facilities in Rabigh and the area around Dammam airport.

Houthi attacks expose challenges for Saudi air defence. The series of strikes on Saudi airports and energy infrastructure indicate that the Houthis retain the ability to hit targets deep inside the Kingdom. The escalation coincides with an offensive by Yemeni government forces, which claim to have retaken Mocha and sections of the coast near Bab el-Mandeb, as well as the beginning of efforts to implement the Makkah Alliance’s collective defence commitments. A key challenge for the agreement is translating political declarations into operational capabilities, particularly early warning, air and missile defence, and force coordination. The attacks to date are not sufficient to assess the effectiveness of the alliance itself, whose mechanisms are still being implemented.

Sunday, October 11

Another attack on Riyadh airport. The Houthis continue their offensive, carrying out another attack on King Khalid International Airport. A projectile strikes Terminal 4, causing a fire, killing a Pakistani national and injuring 11 people. Saudi authorities suspend operations at Riyadh airport, and airlines cancel or divert flights. Western diplomatic missions advise their citizens to avoid airports and limit travel. According to the Houthi-controlled Al-Masirah television channel, Saudi forces have attacked Sanaa airport. Riyadh has yet to confirm the report.

WPC Energy Congress overshadowed by escalation. Attacks on Saudi aviation and energy infrastructure coincide with the start of the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh (11–15 October). Welcome events are scheduled for 11 October, with the official opening on 12 October. Despite disruptions to air travel, organisers continue preparations for the congress. The escalation increases logistical risks and affects attendance by some representatives of international energy companies. It also contributes to rising oil prices: Brent gains after the weekend attacks, although the benchmark is already trading above USD 100 per barrel on 9 October (around USD 104.72 at the close).

Sources:

Akorda, October 8, 2026: https://akorda.kz/en/president-takes-part-in-the-8th-consultative-meeting-of-the-heads-of-state-of-central-asia-and-azerbaijan-895445

Al-Monitor, October 7, 2026: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/turkey-send-mecca-pact-parliament-opening-path-saudi-deployment

Al-Monitor/Reuters, October 6, 2026: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/us-removes-bombers-uk-base-centre-suspected-iranian-plot

Anadolu, October 6, 2026: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/fire-erupts-on-liberia-flagged-oil-tanker-near-russia-s-sochi-authorities/4080163

AnewZ, October 9, 2026: https://anewz.tv/region/central-asia/25290/daily-brief-key-developments-from-the-cis-summit/news

ARY News/Reuters, October 6, 2026: https://arynews.tv/yemeni-government-forces-drive-houthis-from-bab-el-mandeb-strait

Baird Maritime, October 7, 2026: https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/incidents/on-peace-tanker-attack-hormuz

Blue News, October 5, 2026: https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/international/the-plague-mystery-intensifies-russia-appears-to-be-locking-down-5-hospitals-li.3625101

Courthouse News/AP, October 6, 2026: https://courthousenews.com/ex-spy-chief-is-arrested-in-germany-on-suspicion-of-trading-state-secrets-and-treason/

ČTK/Ukrinform, October 6, 2026: https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/ukrinform/cesky/zprava.php?id=1454205

Eurasianet, October 6, 2026: https://eurasianet.org/fears-about-russian-plague-case-rattle-central-asia