EastBridge Insight Week #11

Monday, October 12

Saudi Arabia and Yemen: Riyadh airport closure extended after a series of Houthi attacks. Saudi authorities keep King Khalid International Airport closed until 17 October after it is hit four times in five days. The deadliest strike, on 10 October, killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. According to The Wall Street Journal, Riyadh has moved its air defence batteries to prioritise the protection of palaces and energy infrastructure. Trump says he is considering joining strikes against the Houthis, who warn that they will respond to any U.S. involvement in a “swift and painful” manner.

Yemen: Houthis complete the encirclement of Taiz. According to the Critical Threats Project and ISW, the Houthis have captured Al-Misrakh district, about 13 km south of Taiz, and have completely encircled the city. This makes it harder to resupply the defenders and could free up Houthi forces for operations on the Red Sea coast.

Iran: Tehran reviews the U.S. response and offers to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says Tehran is still studying the U.S. response to Iran’s ceasefire proposal, although Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, called it inadequate a day earlier. Rezaei also threatens to target undersea cables and data centres in the region if Iran is struck again. Baghaei says Tehran is ready to help open a dialogue between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

UK and Iran: London officially blames the IRGC for the suspected RAF Fairford plot for the first time. Prime Minister Andy Burnham tells Parliament that the suspected plot against RAF Fairford on 27 September was most likely directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). London summons the Iranian ambassador and sanctions two Iranian nationals. Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismisses the accusations as a false-flag operation.

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: By publicly identifying the IRGC, following an earlier joint statement by 32 countries, the UK made its position on suspected Iranian hybrid activity in Europe explicit and signalled the possibility of further sanctions. London had not made any evidence public, however, and the detained men had been released on bail without charge, allowing Tehran to use these facts to support its false-flag narrative. If the findings were confirmed, a plot against a base used by U.S. bombers would suggest that Tehran was prepared to extend the war to the territory of U.S. allies. The threat alone prompted the withdrawal of twelve B-1B bombers from Fairford, illustrating how even a failed operation could give Iran an operational advantage. For European NATO members, including Poland, this highlighted the need to treat infrastructure made available to allies as a potential target for proxy sabotage.

Strait of Hormuz: 60 countries oppose transit tolls in international straits. Sixty countries, including EU member states, Australia, and the UK, endorse a declaration on freedom of navigation that rejects tolls for passage through international straits. The declaration comes as Iran continues to operate its own permit system and vessel blacklist in the Strait of Hormuz.

Syria: UN Security Council reviews the transition. During the Security Council debate, officials report that 5.5 million Syrians remain displaced and that the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has verified the destruction of Syrian chemical munitions—42 aerial bombs—for the first time. The UN and Damascus also begin talks on preparations for future elections.

Georgia: Russia imposes an import ban as EU ministers discuss the country. Russia temporarily bans imports from several Georgian companies, mainly wine and beverage producers. The same day, after EU foreign ministers discuss Georgia, Kaja Kallas says democratic backsliding in the country is worsening, while Marta Kos says its EU candidate status exists only on paper.

Tuesday, October 13

Yemen and Saudi Arabia: Aramco building comes under attack after airstrikes on oil facilities in Sanaa. Following Saudi airstrikes on oil facilities in Sanaa, the port of Ras Isa and Hodeidah province, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree declares Saudi oil installations legitimate targets. Shortly afterwards, an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran comes under attack, causing a small fire but no casualties. Debris from missiles intercepted over Riyadh injured four people. The Saudi government says the Houthis will face consequences.

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: By attacking Aramco and declaring oil facilities legitimate targets, the Houthis shifted pressure from airports to the infrastructure on which Saudi exports depended. This happened at a time when Saudi air defences were overstretched and reportedly prioritised palaces and energy sites at the expense of other targets. Tehran’s offer to mediate suggested that Iran viewed the Houthi campaign as a bargaining chip in its relations with Riyadh and Washington. Riyadh faced a choice between further escalation, which would put its infrastructure at greater risk, and talks in which the Houthis would negotiate from a position of strength after taking ground near the Bab el-Mandeb. U.S. participation in the strikes could, in turn, have pushed the Houthis to block shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, the main alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemen: “Dawn of Yemen” offensive advances in Marib as Taiz comes under fire. Government forces say they have captured hills around the Maas camp in Madghal district and positions north of Harib district in Marib province. In besieged Taiz, Houthi shelling kills five civilians in a single day, including a five-year-old girl.

Strait of Hormuz: Container ship GFS Pride sinks. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) records four attacks on ships in the strait. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being hit. Its 21 crew members were evacuated. The IRGC Navy says the ship struck a mine while following an “unauthorised” route, while a U.S. official attributes the sinking to an Iranian attack, most likely involving a missile.

Lebanon: Hezbollah announces an aid plan amid widespread destruction in the south. Hezbollah says it will pay up to $14,000 to families whose homes were destroyed in the war with Israel earlier that year. An analysis by The New York Times, published the previous day, found that 48 of the 60 villages in the Israeli-occupied part of southern Lebanon had been largely flattened since the April ceasefire.

Azerbaijan and Iran: Protests against the school headscarf ban coincide with a visit by Iran’s interior minister. The Interior Ministry says 37 people were detained during protests against the ban on headscarves in schools. The authorities describe the protests as a campaign coordinated from abroad, and the National NGO Forum explicitly names Iran. At the same time, Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visits Baku, where he discusses security cooperation with Ilham Aliyev.

Armenia: Mirzoyan visits Warsaw as Pashinyan discusses relations with Russia. At the Warsaw Security Forum, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan meets Radosław Sikorski and Andrii Sybiha, who invite him to Kyiv. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan tells RFI that Armenia will not become a “second Ukraine” and will maintain good relations with Russia while moving closer to the EU.

Libya: EU expands migration cooperation to the east of the country. According to Reuters, the EU allocates an additional €25 million for border management, search and rescue at sea, and anti-smuggling operations in eastern Libya. The EU formally recognises only the government in Tripoli, but it has been building closer ties with Khalifa Haftar’s authorities as the number of migrant boat departures continues to rise.

Wednesday, October 14

Iraq and Saudi Arabia: Ali al-Zaidi meets Mohammed bin Salman. Iraq’s prime minister meets the crown prince in Riyadh, marking the first visit by a foreign leader to the Saudi capital since the airport attack. Al-Zaidi condemns the strikes on the kingdom and says Iraq will not allow its territory to be used for attacks on its neighbours. His planned visit in July was cancelled after U.S. and Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilisation Forces positions.

Yemen and Saudi Arabia: Houthis claim the Aramco attack as more missiles are intercepted over Riyadh. The Houthis claim responsibility for the attack on Aramco and promise further strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while the coalition intercepts more missiles and drones aimed at Riyadh. A Conflict Armament Research report cited by The Wall Street Journal says the Houthis are trying to build medium-range ballistic missiles, with a range of up to approximately 1,900 km, using Chinese components.

Iran: Tehran adopts new tactics against shipping ahead of the U.S. elections. Two senior Iranian officials tell Reuters that Iran is using new methods to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz to maintain high oil prices and influence the U.S. midterm elections. Authorities in Hormozgan province say three fishermen were seriously injured in an attack by a “hostile drone.”

Commentary by Oliwier Gorgoń: Linking the attacks on shipping to the midterm elections suggested that Tehran saw oil prices as a means of putting pressure on American domestic politics. The sinking of the GFS Pride also showed that Iran could still disrupt traffic through the strait despite the U.S. naval presence. The attacks focused on vessels that ignored Iran’s transit rules or took part in ship-to-ship transfers, with the aim of undermining alternative export routes used by Gulf states. Threats against undersea cables and data centres suggested that Tehran was expanding its range of potential targets to raise the cost of any renewed U.S. strikes. At the time, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz therefore appeared more likely to increase than decrease before the November elections.

Thursday, October 15

Afghanistan: UN reports a severe hunger crisis. According to the UN report “Human rights situation in Afghanistan. July–September 2026 update”, published on 15 October, 15.9 million people in Afghanistan face acute food insecurity, the highest level of hunger and malnutrition ever recorded in the country. With winter approaching, the UN warns that conditions could deteriorate further. Under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global initiative that assesses food security on a five-phase scale to support decision-making, 32% of Afghans are in Phase 3 (crisis) or worse, while 3.4 million are already in Phase 4.

Commentary by Klaudia Fukowska: Hunger on this scale did not appear overnight. On 7 October, 25 years had passed since the start of the U.S. military operation widely known as the “War on Terror”, which left the country’s economy in ruins for years. Its consequences included disease outbreaks, contaminated water or a complete lack of access to water, and inadequate sanitation and hygiene. The Taliban takeover in 2021 brought further human rights abuses, which affected women and girls most severely. The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned of a catastrophe and called for urgent funding to expand food aid, provide emergency agricultural support, and prevent and treat malnutrition. As WFP country director John Aylieff put it: “We still have a window to act, but it is closing fast.”

Nigeria: Boko Haram militants attack an army base in the north-east. In a coordinated attack in Maiduguri, the militants killed at least 10 soldiers and wounded more than 20 people. Sources who request anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media report that five civilians and a forest ranger were also killed. Army spokesman Captain Mohammed Goni does not respond to requests for comment.

Commentary by Klaudia Fukowska: Attacks by Islamist groups in Africa, including Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and JNIM, had increased sharply over the preceding months, mainly in the Sahel. Despite repeated military operations by the states fighting these groups, the results had been modest. One example was the repelling of an attack on a military position in Nigeria’s Borno State; even then, the Nigerian army did not disclose its losses.

Friday, October 16

Saudi Eurofighter narrowly escapes a Houthi missile strike. Houthi fighters release a video online showing a Saudi Air Force jet being tracked and a missile being fired at it. The incident most likely took place over Houthi-held territory, where Saudi aircraft were supporting the ground offensive. The footage shows an explosion, but the Eurofighter Typhoon was neither shot down nor seriously damaged, and the Saudi military has not confirmed reports of a crash.

Saturday, October 17

Kenya: Ministry of Health reports four new Ebola cases. The first person infected, who also died of the disease, was a resident of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the epidemic is still spreading on a large scale. The other cases include a relative of the first patient, who also died, and three health workers who were placed in quarantine. Even before Kenya’s first case, its government, together with specialists from Uganda, which was also fighting the disease, and the World Health Organization (WHO), stepped up preparedness after the outbreak in the DRC was declared in May. At the time, the government did not announce any closures.

Egypt: President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi pledges to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against Houthi attacks. After the attacks on Riyadh’s international airport and Saudi Aramco facilities, Sisi emphasises Egypt’s close strategic and economic partnership with Saudi Arabia and says his country will provide assistance in line with the guidance of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He stresses that Egypt has no intention of attacking any country but is fully prepared to act in a defensive role.

Sunday, October 18

U.S. and Israel: Donald Trump announces White House support for Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the 27 October parliamentary election. Although the endorsement appears in a post on Truth Social, it marks the first official expression of support for Netanyahu following a prolonged dispute between the two leaders. Trump adds that if anyone else takes power in Israel, the United States will be left on its own in the conflict with Iran.

Commentary by Klaudia Fukowska: The latest Israeli election polls at the time (Haaretz, “Israel 2026 Election Poll Tracker: The Latest Projections”) placed Yashar, the centrist opposition party of retired general Gadi Eisenkot, in first place, with a projected 52 seats alongside its coalition partners. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party was projected to win 51 seats. With such a narrow margin, it was difficult to predict who would win or what the outcome would mean for the region.

Yemen: Fighting intensifies around Taiz as the humanitarian crisis deepens. Fighting between government forces and the Houthis escalates on several fronts. The war has flared up again after the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (“Supporters of God”), captured strategic territory along the Red Sea the previous month from forces loyal to the internationally recognised government. Saudi Arabia also provides military support. The heaviest fighting takes place in Taiz province, where both government forces and the Houthis use artillery and combat drones, while aircraft bomb Houthi targets. In towns across the province, thousands of displaced people crowd bus stops and streets as they try to escape the fighting.

Commentary by Klaudia Fukowska: As in Lebanon, the war between Yemen’s authorities and the Houthis took its heaviest toll on civilians. Taiz, the epicentre of the fighting, was effectively cut off. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the twelve hospitals still operating in the city would run out of fuel within days and lacked the medicines, surgical instruments and oxygen needed to keep patients alive. Amid these dire humanitarian conditions, a cholera outbreak also took hold. At the time, there was no way to reach the city or the residents who remained there. The Yemeni refugee crisis had spread to East Africa, mainly Djibouti and Somalia, where the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) confirmed 31 cholera cases linked to the outbreak and one death.

Sources:

Just Security: Early Edition, 12 October, https://www.justsecurity.org/160381/early-edition-october-12-2026/

Just Security: Early Edition, 13 October, https://www.justsecurity.org/160525/early-edition-october-13-2026/

Just Security: Early Edition, 14 October, https://www.justsecurity.org/160738/early-edition-october-14-2026/

Critical Threats / ISW: Iran Update, 12 October, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-12-2026

Al Jazeera: another attack on Riyadh airport, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/saudi-arabia-says-1-dead-11-injured-in-latest-attack-on-riyadh-airport

The Times of Israel (citing the Wall Street Journal): Saudi air defences prioritise palaces and energy infrastructure, https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-arabia-said-low-on-interceptors-to-thwart-mounting-houthi-missile-attacks/

CBS News: live coverage, 12–13 October (incl. Baghaei on reviewing the US response), https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi/

Al Jazeera: Iran offers to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/irans-fm-urges-diplomacy-in-call-with-saudi-counterpart

Al Jazeera: Iranian threats against the oil shuttle out of the Strait of Hormuz, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/12/iran-sets-crosshairs-on-us-uae-oil-shuttle-out-of-strait-of-hormuz

Al Jazeera: Iran responds to UK accusations over RAF Fairford, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/13/iran-sees-false-flag-operations-after-uk-blames-irgc-for-airbase-incident

Reuters (via Internazionale): 60 countries oppose strait tolls, https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/10/12/sixty-countries-back-declaration-opposing-strait-tolls

Seatrade Maritime: Iran’s permit system and vessel blacklist in the Strait of Hormuz, https://seatrade-maritime.com/security/hormuz-blacklist-expands-as-iran-warns-charterers-over-compliance

UN News: Security Council on Syria, https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168578

Al Jazeera: Aramco attack and airstrikes on Sanaa, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/13/houthis-threaten-saudi-arabias-aramco-facilities-and-airports

The National: threats against oil facilities, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/13/saudi-led-coalition-and-houthis-trade-threats-over-oil-installations/

Al Jazeera: Marib offensive and shelling of Taiz, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/13/deadly-houthi-attacks-in-yemens-taiz-as-government-forces-advance-in-marib

CNN: further strikes between the Houthis and Riyadh, https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/13/middleeast/saudi-strikes-houthi-fuel-depot-latam-intl

Seatrade Maritime: sinking of GFS Pride, https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/iran-claims-mine-sank-container-ship-amid-fresh-hormuz-attacks

ABC News: live updates (15–17 October entries), CENTCOM statement on the sinking of GFS Pride, https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-trump-us-attack-iran-ahead/?id=137063637

Al Jazeera: Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Riyadh, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iraq-pm-tells-saudi-crown-prince-iraqi-territory-wont-be-used-for-attacks

The National: first visit by a foreign leader since the airport attack, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/14/saudi-crown-prince-meets-iraqs-prime-minister-in-riyadh/

Kurdistan24: cancelled July visit, https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/945142

US News / Reuters: EU funding for eastern Libya, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-13/eu-expands-migration-cooperation-with-eastern-libya-through-new-funding

JAMnews: South Caucasus news roundup, 12–16 October, https://jam-news.net/news-in-azerbaijan-armenia-georgia-12-16-october-2026/

Reuters: Boko Haram attack on an army base in Nigeria, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-kill-10-soldiers-attack-northeast-nigeria-army-base-2026-10-15/

Kenya Ministry of Health (X): statement on Ebola, https://x.com/MOH_Kenya/status/2111469127328051670

Al Jazeera: Kenya confirms four new Ebola cases, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/17/kenya-confirms-four-more-ebola-cases-bringing-total-to-seven

UN News: new infections in Kenya, https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168602

Reuters: Egypt ready to support Saudi Arabia militarily against the Houthis, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypts-sisi-seeks-parliaments-backing-help-defend-saudi-arabia-if-asked-2026-10-17/

Defence24: Saudi fighter hit by the Houthis (in Polish), https://defence24.pl/sily-zbrojne/saudyjski-mysliwiec-trafiony-przez-huti-jest-nagranie

PAP: Trump backs Netanyahu in the upcoming election (in Polish), https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/trump-oficjalnie-poparl-netanjahu-w-nadchodzacych-wyborach-w-izraelu

Haaretz: Israel 2026 Election Poll Tracker: The Latest Projections (accessed 18 October), https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-06-29/ty-article-static/.premium/israel-2026-election-poll-tracker-the-latest-projections/0000019e-35f6-d813-adde-77fe823d0000

Al Jazeera: fighting in Yemen and the deepening humanitarian crisis, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/18/fighting-intensifies-across-yemen-as-humanitarian-crisis-deepens

UN News: record hunger in Afghanistan, https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168605

Human Rights Watch: 25 years since the war in Afghanistan began, https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/10/04/afghans-await-justice-25-years-after-war-began

Human Rights Watch: Afghanistan 25 years after the US-led invasion, https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/10/04/afghanistan-25-years-since-the-us-led-invasion