#05
EastBridge Insight Week
EastBridge Insight Week #05
The weekly summary for August 31–September 6 was prepared by our Junior Analysts.
Monday, August 31
SCO Summit, Kyrgyzstan. The 26th SCO summit opened, marking the organization’s 25th anniversary, under the slogan “Together for Lasting Peace, Development and Prosperity.” Xi, Putin, Modi, Shehbaz Sharif, Pezeshkian, Aliyev, Pashinyan, and Lukashenko were in attendance. Putin announced separate talks with Pezeshkian, expressing solidarity with Iran amid U.S. pressure, as well as with Xi. This is the first SCO summit hosted by Kyrgyzstan.
Strait of Hormuz. Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, unidentified projectiles struck the Saudi VLCC Sidr (operated by Bahri) and the Liberian VLCC Senegal Prosperity (operated by Sinokor) within minutes of each other near Khasab, Oman, as they were exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Both tankers had loaded 2 million barrels of Saudi crude each at the Juaymah terminal a week earlier. UKMTO confirmed that three projectiles struck one of the tankers at the same location, while maritime security firm Marisks described the incident as a “further escalation of the threat in the Omani corridor.” Initial reports indicated no casualties.
Kazakhstan. In the first major round of appointments following the launch of the new unicameral parliament, Tokayev appointed Yerlan [Erlan] Karin as vice president—the first in three decades (Karin is the first person to hold the office since it was reinstated under the new constitution adopted this year). Olzhas Bektenov remained prime minister, while Aida Balayeva moved from the government to the Security Council. Karin previously served as First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.
Tuesday, September 1
Strait of Hormuz. The United States resumed strikes against IRGC targets around the Strait of Hormuz, including launchers on Larak Island, following reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Jask and Qeshm. This coincided with an intensification of economic pressure: at the G20 summit in North Carolina, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an intention to “strangle the economy” of the regime, marking a return to kinetic measures after weeks during which Washington had focused on sanctions (“economic D-Day”). Iran responded with attacks on Jordan and Bahrain, both of which were neutralized by air defenses, while the UAE shot down an Iranian drone over its waters—the first such exchange of fire since late July and a clear departure from the diplomatic track of negotiations.
SCO Summit. On the sidelines of the SCO summit, Aliyev and Pashinyan held another round of peace talks. Aliyev described the South Caucasus as a “zone of peace,” while Pashinyan referred to the development of transport corridors under TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). This was another meeting between the two leaders this year outside the formal negotiation process.
Egypt. Xi Jinping, accompanied by First Lady Peng Liyuan, arrived in Egypt for his first visit in a decade. The visit coincided with the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations and took place against the backdrop of threatened U.S. sanctions on Egypt over its financial ties with Iran. Over the following days, Xi and Sisi signed a series of agreements, including one concerning the third phase of the Suez Canal Economic Zone (around 200 companies and $4 billion in investment), as well as agreements on AI, transport, and renewable energy. In a joint statement, the two sides called for an end to the war in Sudan and stated that responsibility for Red Sea security should rest primarily with the littoral states, which can be interpreted as support for Egypt’s concept of the “regionalization” of security without the involvement of external powers.
Wednesday, September 2
West Bank. Two Palestinian teenagers were killed during a raid by settlers and the military on a village near Ramallah. According to the Israeli military, soldiers entered the village to secure police officers and a civilian who was retrieving livestock; when residents began throwing stones, soldiers opened fire on “key instigators.” Since the beginning of 2026, at least 79 Palestinians, including 19 children, have been killed in the West Bank by settlers or the military (according to OCHA)—another episode following the August siege of the village of Qusra, which was condemned by the international community.
Ukraine. A firefight broke out in Kyiv between SBU officers and soldiers from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service. Three HUR members were wounded, two of them seriously. Zelensky called the incident “absolutely disgraceful” and announced investigations by the Prosecutor General’s Office and the State Bureau of Investigation, as well as internal proceedings within both services. He subsequently dismissed Oleh Khramov, head of the SBU department responsible for protecting state secrets. The incident highlights a serious problem of coordination and control within Ukraine’s security services during wartime.
Thursday, September 3
Kazakhstan. On the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants and Atomstroyexport (a Rosatom company) signed an EPC contract for the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, Balkhash, in Almaty Region. The plant will consist of two VVER-1200 units with a combined capacity of 2.4 GW, and construction is expected to take around eight years. Rosatom was selected to lead the consortium.
Kuwait. Iran attacked U.S. military bases in Kuwait, even as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes amid a renewed escalation of the conflict, six months after the war began. Trump said his armed forces were ready to strike Iran “whenever he wants,” after intensive U.S. bombardment of sites across the country killed at least 19 Iranians. Tehran responded by attacking U.S. military targets across the Middle East, including in Kuwait, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Region. The clashes deepen the continuing stalemate in the conflict, as Iran maintains tight control over the oil-export route through the Strait of Hormuz while the United States continues its counter-blockade of Iranian ports.
Libya. A drone attack targeted a fuel depot belonging to the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli. According to the NOC, the attack caused minor damage to tanks and pipelines but resulted in no casualties or disruptions to fuel supplies. The incident occurred several weeks after a more serious drone attack on the Zawiya oil complex, in which a tank holding around 4.5 million liters of gasoline was destroyed.
Friday, September 4
Israel–Gaza. The IDF announced the killing of Mohammad Mahmoud Marshad al-Qadi, a Nukhba Force company commander who led the October 7, 2023 attack on the Sufa outpost and held hostages in the Rafah area. He was killed in Wednesday’s airstrike on Khan Younis. The military also said that forces in northern Gaza came under fire, describing it as a “blatant violation of the ceasefire,” and responded with a strike in the area. At the same time, it was revealed that Muein al-Arabid, the head of Hamas’s internal security services, who was captured on Tuesday, has been cooperating with Shin Bet investigators and providing valuable information about the organization’s weapons, personnel, and infrastructure. His arrest reportedly triggered fears within Hamas of further Israeli operations. These actions are continuing despite attempts to implement a U.S.-backed plan to disarm Hamas, progress on which has stalled ahead of Knesset elections expected in late October.
Ukraine. A Russian drone struck the SBU’s central headquarters on Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv. At least five people were wounded, although some sources put the number at around 12. Zelensky said the attack had targeted the office of the SBU leadership and instructed the head of the service to prepare a “tangible response” against Russia, preferably one that would be a “mirror image” of the strike. Hitting the SBU’s central headquarters carries symbolic significance, striking at the institutional heart of Ukraine’s security system.
Saturday, September 5
U.S.–Iran. U.S. forces attacked three Iranian tankers after the IRGC launched ballistic missiles toward a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer, which avoided being hit without suffering casualties. The United States permanently disabled the tankers M/T Downy (near Kharg Island) and M/T Stark 1 (near Jask) and destroyed the unloaded M/T Kylo in the Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper (CENTCOM) warned that every attack on U.S. vessels would carry a higher economic cost, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed to “destroy and sink” Iranian tankers. Iran described the strikes as “illegal aggression” in violation of the United Nations Charter, while parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf promised a “faster, heavier and more painful” response.
Geneva. The 128 states parties to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons agreed on a non-binding text intended to pave the way for international rules governing “killer robots.” It is the first step of its kind after more than a decade of talks and was achieved despite opposition from the United States and Russia, which favor retaining national guidelines rather than adopting international regulations. The Stop Killer Robots organization said that the definition of autonomous weapons and safeguards for civilians had been significantly weakened at the last minute. The agreement came amid the growing use of such systems in conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and the Middle East.
Sunday, September 6
Russia–Ukraine. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, met Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday. It was their first visit to the country in their capacity as negotiators, following three hours of talks with Putin in Moscow on Saturday. On Friday, Trump had suggested that he had a new proposal for both leaders. Russia and Ukraine pledged to suspend attacks on each other’s capitals for the duration of the weekend.
U.S.–Iran. Both sides intensified attacks on shipping: the United States attacked three tankers, disabling two and destroying a third as part of Iran’s “shadow network” financing the country’s armed forces. In retaliation, Iran attacked six U.S.-linked vessels in the region after previously firing missiles toward two U.S. warships.
OPEC. Since March, OPEC+ has struggled to implement decisions to increase production because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning Gulf producers have failed to benefit from higher oil prices ($96 per barrel, one-third higher than before the war with Iran). This has further weakened the organization’s appeal: the United Arab Emirates, previously its third-largest producer, withdrew in May, while Venezuela is considering a similar move. OPEC+ countries therefore decided not to increase oil production in October. Experts argue that, because of the war in the Persian Gulf, the cartel’s decisions now have minimal impact on the global oil market. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman decided that—unlike in September—the cartel would not raise production limits, as the U.S.–Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and ports and sanctions imposed on Russia, have resulted in OPEC+ countries producing less oil than planned.
Sources:
https://www.outlookindia.com/national/pm-modi-xi-jinping-putin-gather-in-bishkek-for-26th-sco-summit
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/two-tankers-carrying-saudi-oil-attacked-strait-hormuz
https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-vice-president-prime-minister-approved/
https://www.newsweek.com/us-resumes-iran-war-strikes-economic-pressure-trump-12390872
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/sco-summit-2026-call-for-multipolar-world-order/
https://www.newarab.com/news/xis-cairo-visit-tests-egypts-ties-washington
https://www.reuters.com/world/states-reach-agreement-autonomous-weapons-talks-geneva-2026-09-05/